North American Soccer League: Dead in the Water?
The olden days.
So says one of the best reporters on lower league American soccer, Jeff DiVeronica. The North American Soccer League breakaway from USL may have a nice historic touch going for it, but the reality for it is likely to be tougher than we might think.
DiVeronica goes through each of the proposed markets, concluding in ALL-CAPS and bold in case you don’t pick up on his theme that “PICK THROUGH THAT LIKE YOU WILL TURKEY THURSDAY. BONE ENDS UP PRETTY BARE.”
His breakdown is as follows:
1. Montreal: Likely in MLS by 2011 and Quebec City takes its spot in NASL. Why would Quebec fans support a feeder team when it can watch the real thing, the Impact, at Stade Saputo in MLS?
2. Vancouver: Headed to MLS in 2011. Same “fan” deal as Montreal if it decides to put its top youth team in the NASL. Would fans want to watch a team of boys play against men? I’ve seen a franchise bite off more than it can chew in Rochester, and seen it deteriorate because of it.
3. Miami: No magic dust will make fans come to matches in South Beach no matter the league. Haven’t failed teams in MLS/USL proven that enough?
4. Carolina: Unless the owners have Bill Gates money, at some point they pull the plug. RailHawks averaged 2,700 last year with a dynamite team. Attendance has decreased in each of their 3 years.
5. Minnesota: Can it free itself from debt to have a team ready for 2010? Has it even officially announced it’s a TOA wannabe?
6. St. Louis: Has an aggressive owner, Jeff Cooper, who wants to be involved but if this market is so good … why hasn’t it had a team for so long? And doesn’t it want to move up to MLS, too?
7. Atlanta: See No. 3, Miami (plus, it was dormant in 2009).
8. Tampa: See No. 3 Miami as a failed Florida market and it’s a start-up team so expectation is probably where it should be (low).
9. Crystal Palace: USL-2 team trying to move up in Baltimore, where fans support D.C. United and not minor-league soccer.
Pretty hard to argue with some of that, though you could also paint a brighter picture and point out that having organisations of the proven quality of Montreal, Vancouver and St Louis (WPS) there to get the league going is a big bonus, even if they all have MLS in their sights (though St. Louis is considerably further away from that than Montreal).
Brian Quarstad at the outstanding Inside Minnesota Soccer provides further trenchant analysis of the league’s prospects, noting the USSF met on Saturday about the new league and USL situation with no statement made supporting either as a Division 2 league for 2010. The timeline for USSF approval in order to begin play by April is awfully tight at this point, despite the NASL’s grandiose ambitions. The USL is, of course, also in a total mess with so few teams remaining.
Quarstad breaks down all of the potential scenarios once US Soccer makes a decision, and none of them are as easy as sticking a new logo on the league and the USSF calling it Division 2, summing up that:
The bottom line is the possibilities are endless and so are the opportunities for lawsuits and counter lawsuits. Someone needs to get hold of this situation and steer it in a direction of resolution. TOA could be seen as an explosion of possibilities, but on the other hand, this whole thing could implode and be tied up for years in court with no good 2nd division league in the US or Canada. This would look ugly to FIFA when making a decision about a US bid for the World Cup in 2018 or 2022. In my opinion, Sunil Gulati has to be concerned.
I’m sure Gulati is already concerned and the headache pills are popping all over US Soccer headquarters. Fans of all teams and interested observers remain in the dark awaiting some sign on where this is all headed, but my gut feeling is it’s going to be a mess that’ll take at least until 2011 to sort out.
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DiVeronica has been extremely negative toward the TOA since Day 1. The more I read his columns, the more I wonder if he’s the USL’s answer to Real Madrid’s Marca.
And they’ll come back in Miami if they rename the club the Ft. Lauderdale Strikers. Given the new league’s name, it only seems fitting. ;^)
He has, though he’s back it up with some good arguments — it’s not been baseless criticism for the most part, as least the pieces I’ve read. The issues Quarstad raises about the mess US Soccer has to sort out are probably even more pertinent, though.
I thoroughly disagree with his opinion about Miami.
First, “no magic dust will make fans come to matches in South Beach.” Miami FC doesn’t play in South Beach. They split their last season between Miami and Fort Lauderdale.
As for labeling Miami Fusion a failure, I disagree. It was a failure of the owner pulling out rather than a lack of good football or rising attendances (both of which happened during the final season). Sure, there was much work to do but to call it a failure is incredibly harsh and wrong.
Miami FC hasn’t been a success in USL, I agree. But that’s a whole other story.
Cheers,
The Gaffer
Interesting points, Gaffer. I would be curious on your thoughts given Miami FC’s failure in USL — do you think a Miami team could be a success in a new Division 2 like the NASL (with greater marketing, as promised by the league), or does a Miami team need MLS credibility to thrive?
1) DiVeronica has always been negative Nelly about a breakaway.
2) Rochester will soon be in the league as USL-1 just lost another team (Charleston to USL2)
3)Quebec City is two hours from Montreal. Do fans from Binghampon drive to Rochester for the “real thing.”
4) Minnesota will have new ownership.
5) All the remaining USL-1 teams will soon join up as only 5 remain. At that point DiVeronica will be singing their praises.
I could write a novel about Miami FC’s failure in USL. But to answer the easy question, I don’t think a Miami team in a new Division 2 would have the credibility to thrive (or survive). Soccer fans in South Florida have incredibly high standards, so the only thing that I see saving us is the possibility of Beckham launching a MLS team here in the 20th slot. Anything outside that will be a tough haul for the owners to get fans to visit the stadium.
Cheers,
The Gaffer
“First, “no magic dust will make fans come to matches in South Beach.” Miami FC doesn’t play in South Beach. They split their last season between Miami and Fort Lauderdale.”
And nobody came to those games, either.
I’m not one of those who just says “South Florida…South Florida…nothing works in South Florida.” I do think there are challenges in that market, but I also think Traffic and (before that) Horowitz, et al, were woefully unimaginative when it came to dealing with those problems.
KT, I completely agree with you. Miami FC last season was a failure for many different reasons (too many to mention here). And Traffic and Horowitz have been woeful in the past in terms of marketing the teams to South Florida. It can work, which is why I was excited about the possibility of Barcelona working with a team here, but that rug was pulled out from under us at the last minute.
Cheers,
The Gaffer
I could never understand how a new league could use as its foundation a team (Vancouver) that was heading out the door in one year. Makes no sense at all.
Agree with the earlier comment about the Montreal/Quebec ‘synergy’. That’s like expecting Mets fans to rally around the Phillies if the NY franchise moved.
It’s been tossed around that Vancouver would move their Div. 2 side to Victoria once the Caps move to MLS.
It’s been tossed around that Vancouver would move their Div. 2 side to Victoria once the Caps move to MLS.
thanks
use. Or perhaps I feel that the object needs to be available