Attendance restrictions may cut potential revenues for Euro 2020 host cities by €194 million.

Following extensive discussions between governments and the European football association over fan attendance at Euro 2020, this study looked at the impact of visitor numbers on local economies and shows the potential income that is at risk for tournament host cities due to restrictions on stadium attendances.

Millions of fans who follow their teams abroad can bring substantial income through direct visitor spending on football-related activities as well as indirect revenues that benefit the wider economy. Pitchinvasion.net researched how much of an economic impact the tournament will have on the different host cities.

This summer, for the first time ever, hosting duties for the tournament will be shared between 11 cities in Europe, from Seville to Baku. Questions remain about whether fans will want to travel abroad and how full stadiums are allowed to be, threatening the possible economic outcome of the tournament. To understand what is at stake, pitchinvasion.net carried out a study to assess the financial impact that limited attendances will have on the host cities through lost tourism and hospitality revenues.

The tournament kicks off in Rome on June 11th and wraps up in London on July 11th. Estimates suggest that the EU tourism sector has lost €1 billion in revenue per month since the start of 2020. It therefore provides an opportunity to inject much-needed cash into each country through visitor spending.

We analysed the revenues each city was expected to make in 2020 and the total income each city can expect to receive from the provisional spectator numbers they have submitted.

The study reveals that, if provisional spectator numbers are applied, the host cities stand to miss out on a combined €194 million as a result of the imposed restrictions.

51

0
Games Played

4,597,120

0
Journeys

5,141,320

0
Accommodation Nights
Total amount fans will spend in cities while travelling during Euro 2020

€311,909,713

0 *

*This number does not include transport.

Notes on provisional minimum attendance numbers

All host cities were required to guarantee that stadiums will be at least 25% full at the tournament. Each city has therefore committed to a provisional minimum number of spectators that will be in the stadiums, which could increase depending on whether the health situation improves in each country. These figures are listed below and informed the calculations the study made for projected revenues.

CityStadium capacityProvisional stadium capacityProvisional attendance
Amsterdam (Netherlands)54,00025%13,500
Baku (Azerbaijan)69,00050%34,500
Bilbao (Spain)53,0000%0
Bucharest (Romania)54,00025%13,500
Budapest (Hungary)68,000100%68,000
Copenhagen (Denmark)38,00025%9,500
Dublin (Ireland)51,0000%0
Glasgow (United Kingdom)51,00025%12,800
London (United Kingdom)90,00025%22,500
Munich (Germany)70,00021%14,500
Rome (Italy)68,00025%17,000
Saint Petersburg (Russia)61,00050%30,500
Seville (Spain)60,00030%18,000

Bilbao and Dublin were unable to guarantee the presence of fans in stadiums and their games were moved to Seville, Saint Petersburg and London.

Summary

Below you can find how much revenue would have been generated at each stage of the tournament under normal circumstances compared to how much revenue is projected to be generated at the tournament in the context of limited stadium capacities. The figures have been split into spending categories, including accommodation, restaurants, and other spending, which represents expenses on culture and goods.

  Normal circumstancesCurrent scenario
StageGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, total spendingRestaurants, total spendingOther SpendingTotal SpendingAccommodation, total spendingRestaurants, total spendingOther Spending
Group Stage36€152,084,060€74,370,554€42,171,547€35,541,960€67,182,642€29,026,261€19,450,255€18,706,126
Round of 168€71,510,305€42,321,036€15,270,848€13,918,421€24,911,463€14,192,244€4,936,690€5,782,529
Quarter-finals4€32,064,374€16,105,119€9,886,422€6,072,833€11,419,722€5,467,695€3,766,489€2,185,538
Semi-finals2€37,501,406€28,834,253€6,582,442€2,084,711€9,375,351€7,208,563€1,645,610€521,178
Final1€18,749,567€14,416,253€3,291,022€1,042,292€4,687,392€3,604,063€822,755€260,573

City Tourism Income, Group Stage

The Group Stage will begin on June 11th in Rome and end on June 23rd in Budapest, and will see 36 games in 11 different cities. Because the fixture schedule for the Group Stage is confirmed, we were able to make close estimates of spending figures by looking at historical spending by fans from each nation in the countries hosting their team’s games.

 Normal circumstancesCurrent scenario
CityGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther SpendingGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther Spending
Amsterdam3€5,786,432€3,190,269€1,200,233€1,395,9303€1,446,608€797,567€300,058€348,982
Baku3€20,771,276€10,456,668€8,438,042€1,876,5653€10,385,638€5,228,334€4,219,021€938,283
Bilbao3€8,687,025€3,375,326€2,643,014€2,668,6850€0€0€0€0
Bucharest3€11,016,635€4,829,048€3,268,111€2,919,4773€2,754,159€1,207,262€817,028€729,869
Budapest3€14,085,682€3,995,595€2,553,376€7,536,7113€14,085,682€3,995,595€2,553,376€7,536,711
Copenhagen3€8,188,208€3,584,991€2,299,328€2,303,8893€2,047,052€896,248€574,832€575,972
Dublin3€16,709,336€7,458,678€4,582,245€4,668,4140€0€0€0€0
Glasgow3€15,247,341€11,110,575€2,803,956€1,332,8103€3,826,784€2,788,536€703,738€334,509
London3€16,704,081€10,963,586€3,323,584€2,416,9113€4,176,020€2,740,897€830,896€604,228
Munich3€10,684,980€5,814,717€3,037,083€1,833,1793€2,213,317€1,204,477€629,110€379,730
Rome3€8,224,155€4,117,916€2,172,989€1,933,2503€2,056,039€1,029,479€543,247€483,313
Saint Petersburg3€15,978,909€5,473,186€5,849,584€4,656,1396€21,241,033€7,991,529€7,381,321€5,868,183
Seville0€0€0€0€03€2,950,310€1,146,337€897,627€906,346

Bilbao and Dublin were unable to guarantee the presence of fans in stadiums and their games were moved to Seville, Saint Petersburg and London.

City Tourism Income, Round of 16

The Round of 16 will see 8 games in 7 cities, played between June 26th and June 29th. Since we cannot predict which teams will progress to the Round of 16 and beyond, we used average spending figures from fans of all teams for the latter stages of the tournament, excluding host teams for each scenario.

 Normal circumstancesCurrent scenario
CityGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther SpendingGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther Spending
Amsterdam1€6,505,235€3,741,136€1,273,986€1,490,1131€1,626,309€935,284€318,496€372,528
Bilbao1€7,644,672€3,643,649€1,891,107€2,109,9160€0€0€0€0
Bucharest1€3,181,584€1,394,620€943,824€843,1391€795,396€348,655€235,956€210,785
Budapest1€5,961,444€1,528,934€1,110,179€3,322,3311€5,961,444€1,528,934€1,110,179€3,322,331
Copenhagen1€8,969,199€4,615,469€2,311,827€2,041,9041€2,242,300€1,153,867€577,957€510,476
Dublin1€8,620,240€3,847,884€2,363,951€2,408,4050€0€0€0€0
Glasgow1€10,486,243€8,062,711€1,840,600€582,9321€2,631,841€2,023,582€461,954€146,305
London1€20,141,689€15,486,634€3,535,374€1,119,6812€9,057,869€6,964,456€1,589,884€503,529
Seville0€0€0€0€01€2,596,304€1,237,466€642,263€716,575

Bilbao and Dublin were unable to guarantee the presence of fans in stadiums and their games were moved to Seville, Saint Petersburg and London.

City Tourism Income, Quarter Finals

The Quarter-finals will see 4 games in 4 cities, played on July 2nd and July 3rd.

 Normal circumstancesCurrent scenario
CityGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther SpendingGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther Spending
Baku1€6,448,530€3,246,316€2,619,626€582,5881€3,224,265€1,623,158€1,309,813€291,294
Munich1€9,732,348€5,739,681€2,398,151€1,594,5151€2,015,986€1,188,934€496,760€330,292
Rome1€7,049,111€3,615,830€1,897,627€1,535,6541€1,762,278€903,957€474,407€383,914
Saint Petersburg1€8,834,386€3,503,291€2,971,019€2,360,0761€4,417,193€1,751,646€1,485,510€1,180,038

City Tourism Income, Semi-Finals

The Semi-finals will see 2 games, both held in London, on July 6th and July 7th.

 Normal circumstancesCurrent scenario
CityGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther SpendingGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther Spending
London2€37,501,406€28,834,253€6,582,442€2,084,7112€9,375,351€7,208,563€1,645,610€521,178

City Tourism Income, Final

The final will take place in London on July 11th. As the host of 8 games and the city with the largest stadium, London is poised to make the highest amount of money over the course of the tournament at €27.3 million.

 Normal circumstancesCurrent scenario
CityGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther SpendingGames PlayedTotal SpendingAccommodation, spendingRestaurants, spendingOther Spending
London1€18,749,567€14,416,253€3,291,022€1,042,2921€4,687,392€3,604,063€822,755€260,573

Potential Lost Visitor Income

The economic impact of hosting the tournament is dependent on the provisional stadium capacities stated by each city. The figures below show how much each city could have made under normal circumstances, compared to how much they are set to make in revenue with limited stadium attendances.

 Normal circumstances, full attendanceCurrent scenario, provisional attendances
CityTotal Number of Games PlayedEstimated spending (EUR)Total Number of Games PlayedEstimated spending (EUR)Potential loss/gain in visitor income (EUR)
Seville0045,546,6145,546,614
Saint Petersburg424,813,295725,658,226844,931
Budapest420,047,126420,047,1260
Amsterdam412,291,66643,072,917-9,218,749
Bucharest414,198,21943,549,555-10,648,664
Rome415,273,26643,818,316-11,454,950
Copenhagen417,157,40744,289,352-12,868,055
Baku427,219,805413,609,903-13,609,902
Munich420,417,32844,229,304-16,188,024
Bilbao416,331,69700-16,331,697
Glasgow425,733,58446,458,625-19,274,959
Dublin425,329,57600-25,329,576
London793,096,744827,296,633-65,800,111
TOTAL51311,909,71351117,576,571-194,333,142

Bilbao and Dublin were unable to guarantee the presence of fans in stadiums and their games were moved to Seville, Saint Petersburg and London.

General Methodology

This study analysed the possible economic impact of Euro 2020 on the European cities hosting games during the tournament, taking place this summer from June 11th  to July 11th.

Pitchinvasion.net calculated the potential income in accommodation and hospitality spending from fans travelling and attending their countries’ games in the host cities, as well as those attending domestically. These figures were then used to estimate potential losses if fewer fans are able to attend, revealing which cities stand to lose the most economically from the tournament being played in limited capacity stadiums.

Estimating number of trips, accommodation nights and meals (normal circumstances)

To estimate the number of trips, accommodation nights and meals, the following assumptions were made:

  • Each stadium is filled to full capacity, with 50% of capacity allocated to supporters of each playing team.
  • In games where the host country is playing, each stadium is filled to full capacity comprising 80% host country fans (half of which come from the host city). In addition to the stadium capacity, an extra 10% was added to take into account fans visiting the city without attending any games.
  • Each visitor is counted as one trip.
  • Each international visitor stays two nights in the host city, while domestic visitors stay one. Attendees from the host city are not counted as visitors.
  • Visitors share accommodation in pairs.
  • Each international visitor has six meals, while domestic visitors have three.

 

Estimating number of trips, accommodation nights and meals (current scenario)

To estimate the number of trips, accommodation nights and meals, the following assumptions were made:

  • Each stadium contains the provisional spectator numbers each host city has submitted, with 50% of this number allocated to supporters of each playing team.
  • In games where the host country is playing, each stadium is filled to the provisional capacity limit, of which 80% are host country fans (half of which come from the host city). In addition to the provisional capacity, an extra 10% was added to take into account fans visiting the city without attending any games.
  • Each visitor is counted as one trip.
  • Each international visitor stays two nights in the host city, while domestic visitors stay one. Attendees from the host city are not counted as visitors.
  • Visitors share accommodation in pairs.
  • Each international visitor has six meals, while domestic visitors have three.

 

Estimating visitor spending

Spending by tournament visitors was estimated using country-wide data on average nightly tourism expenditure, incorporating hotels, restaurants and other spending with the most recent data for each category, but excluding spending on transport. For the majority of the host countries, figures for tourism expenditure and total overnight stays were available from Eurostat, from which nightly spend was calculated by taking total annual tourism expenditure on personal trips and dividing it by the total number of nights spent by tourists in each country. The Eurostat database provides this data for each combination of tourist origin country and destination country. We decided not to include transport spending as predicting how people would travel in the current circumstances is difficult. We also wanted to focus on revenues specifically received by the city, and travel revenues are typically received by international travel companies.

For the UK and Azerbaijan, comparable estimates from national statistical offices were used. Due to a lack of comparable statistics for the Russian Federation, high level estimates developed by the Russian national tourism association were used for all international visitors, regardless of origin.

To calculate the total spend by visitors to each Group Stage game, the following assumptions were taken into account:

Normal circumstances:

  • Each stadium is filled to capacity, with 50% of capacity allocated to supporters of each playing team. 
  • In games where the host country is playing, 80% of capacity is assigned to host supporters, and 20% to those of the visiting team.
  • Each international visitor stays two nights in the host city, while visitors from the host country stay one.

 

Current scenario:

  • Each stadium contains the provisional spectator numbers each host city has submitted, with 50% of this number allocated to supporters of each playing team.
  • In games where the host country is playing, each stadium is filled to the provisional capacity limit, of which 80% are host country fans (half of which come from the host city). In addition to the provisional capacity, an extra 10% was added to take into account fans visiting the city without attending any games.
  • Each international visitor stays two nights in the host city, while domestic visitors stay one. Attendees from the host city are not counted as visitors.

 

While the Group Stage games are already scheduled, the teams playing in the later stages are to be decided depending on the results of games in each previous round. The nightly spend figures by visitors to the later stages were calculated by taking the average spend by supporters of all teams that could potentially play in each game except the host country. In effect, the spending represents an average of all potential scenarios assuming equal likelihood that each team except the host country wins its game.

Estimating Potential Lost Visitor Income

Potential lost visitor income was estimated for the scenario that host cities limit stadium capacity in line with the provisional stadium attendances. To calculate the potential lost income, the total revenue for the scenario was subtracted from the maximum potential income.

 

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC METHODOLOGIES

 

Azerbaijan

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. As data for Azerbaijan isn’t included in the Eurostat tourism database, tourism expenditure data from the Azerbaijan National Statistics Office was used. The available statistics made it possible to estimate spending per origin country, however outliers within the data required an alternative approach. For these, average spend for all international tourists in Azerbaijan was calculated, and then adjusted to each tourist origin country according to relative spending, as calculated from Eurostat data.

Sources: Azerbaijan National Statistics Office, Eurostat.

 

Denmark

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other EU countries’ (Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, Slovakia) and ‘Other European countries’ (Russia) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Germany

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other EU countries’ (Finland and Slovakia) and ‘Other European countries’ (North Macedonia and Ukraine) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Hungary

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other European countries’ (North Macedonia) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Ireland

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other EU countries’ (Slovakia) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Italy

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other EU countries’ (Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Sweden) and ‘Other European countries’ (North Macedonia, Russia and Turkey) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Netherlands

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other EU countries’ (Finland) and ‘Other European countries’ (North Macedonia and Ukraine) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Romania

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Europe’ (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Portugal, Russia, Switzerland, Ukraine) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

Russia

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. As data for Russia is not included in the Eurostat tourism database, and the required data points were not available in the Russian Federal State Statistic Service, only high level estimates could be produced. For all international visitors, the same estimated nightly spend was used, based on data published by the Russian government. For domestic visitors, data from the WTTC (Domestic Tourism Spending) and the Russian Federal State Statistic Service (Total number of domestic tourist trips; average number of nights per domestic tourist trip) was used to produce estimated domestic tourist spend.

Sources: Federal State Statistic Service (ROSSTAT), WTTC, Government Research.

 

Spain

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries, therefore in these cases data for ‘Other EU countries’ (Slovakia) was used instead.

Source: Eurostat.

 

United Kingdom

Visitor spending was estimated using the general methodology described above. As data for the United Kingdom is not included in the Eurostat tourism database, tourism expenditure data from the official Visit Britain website was used instead. The available data did not include all the required tourist origin countries; in these cases data for ‘Other Eastern European Countries’ (Croatia, North Macedonia, Slovakia and Ukraine) was used instead.

Sources: VisitBritain (International); VisitBritain (Domestic).