Roxy Roxborough, the founder of Las Vegas Sports Consultants and the man who revolutionized sports wagering by using mathematical formulas and computer models to help compute accurate odds, disagrees with that notion.

“For years it’s been said that oddsmakers are more vulnerable earlier in the year because the teams are new, but I don’t buy it,” said Roxborough, now retired. “Oddsmakers work with the same information as the bettors. Sometimes it’s just a matter of interpretation. In the case of NFL betting, you often have teams with new coaches and–because of trades, free agency or injuries–new quarterbacks. You don’t learn a lot in the exhibition season and that’s basically because teams try to limit the playing time of their significant players because they’re worried about them getting hurt. So you really have to start making assessments based on projections rather than past performances. But I think the oddsmakers and the players are in the same spot. I don’t believe there is any inherent edge early in the NFL betting season. Sometimes people just pick winners. That’s important to remember. Technically, the pointspread makes each game a 50/50 proposition so there are going to be times when players pick more winners than losers.”

If you hear the radio or read the papers or watch the TV, it seems that the only match on Earth is this Boca v. River.

I understand what you are saying about the media in Europe ignoring other leagues or big matches around the world, but that’s exactly what happens in Argentina whenever there’s a superclásico. During the week…it was more important to hear what Boca or River players had to say after their training sessions than the fact that three of our national team players were looking for a place in the Champions League final (Tevez, Messi and Mascherano).

I accept the fact that it is a very passionate and fascination fixture but not following any of the two clubs, sometimes the media hype just becomes a little bit too much.

And whilst I agree with Sam on that the level of football is quite good…I must say that it’s not even close of what it used to be before the massive exodus of players began in the late 80’s-early 90’s.

Regarding Flamengo v Fluminense, a lot of Flamengo fans will tell you that the match they’d most like to win is against Vasco da Gama. Fla-Flu is a traditional fixture and it was born as the fixture of the poor people (Flamengo fans) and the rich and powerful (Fluminense’s). But over the years the rivalry between Flamengo and Vasco took the driver’s seat when it comes to the biggest match according to Flamengo fans. That…and the fact that Flamengo and Fluminense play from 4 to 8 official fixtures per season (up to 6 in the state championship -if they progress to the semifinals of each of the two cups of which the Carioca Tournament consists -Taça Guanabara and Taça Rio- and the 2 Brazilian league fixtures)…take away some of the importance of each duel.

I did reply earlier but was on a work computer and when I hit ’submit’ my post vanished into the ether. I’ve heard from plenty of Argentines that the clásico rosarino is as good if not better for atmosphere than the super – it’s certainly one I’ll be aiming to get to when I’m there for long enough.

As for other derbies being highlighted less, that’s undeniably true. Calí, Santiago and Lima spring to mind as stadia with (apparently) as much of the right sort of madness in the stands, but I think the super gets looked at more because in addition to this it’s also better on the pitch – it’s not got the outright, indisputable best of anything, perhaps, but it does have a very high standard of everything (including the football, because when all’s said and done the Argentine league is certainly among the top few when compared to the vast, vast majority of leagues around the world, even if it’s not on the level, footballistically, of England, Spain, Italy or Germany*).

My point really was that an assumption exists – this is particularly true in England with our media – that when a big match is played in Europe, the entire world doesn’t pay any attention to anything else. It’s as if the biggest match in Europe on a given weekend is automatically the biggest in the world on that day, and for two weekends of each league season, at least (four with the Fla-Flu) that assumption can be challenged. Also, although I do use the phrase in the article, admittedly, I didn’t choose this headline! The one I intended was ‘One Hundred Years of Hatred’, but as with the photo, I totally forgot to tell Tom that when I emailed it to him on Tuesday.

The real shame, though, will be if these sides – or Flamengo and Fluminense, for that matter – end up meeting again in the semi-final of the Copa Libertadores, because the vast majority of fans probably won’t even be aware that it’s happening. If only they knew what they’d be missing out on…

Big game? No doubt. Historic clubs? Yup. More deserving of wider media attention than any other Western Hemisphere derby? Debatable, but you can certainly claim that it is and I’ll probably lose that argument. As you know, Colo Colo and UC, and a host of Colombian and Mexican and Brazilian derbies are all historic, widely attended, passionate, tense, etc. Most of the football world doesn’t know much about them because those derbies haven’t been highlighted. Again, is Boca v. River probably the biggest derby in the Western Hemisphere? I don’t know. I don’t know if it is on its merits or if it is by creation. I went to a Central v. Newell’s (when Newell’s was really good) derby and it had everything that Boca v. River has. The difference? Many, but one big one was that it was a derby from the provinces and not BA and Argentina’s own media treated it off-handedly.

Either way, enjoy the game. Does, Monumental still just sell Paty burgers and Coke as one’s food options?

It’s also, with the Fla-Flu and the final of the Copa Libertadores, one of only two club matches outside Europe that are big enough to attract wider attention outside the Americas. Yes, a lot of it’s down to the myth of the super, but it’s certainly not sunk as far in the public conciousness as, say, Peñarol vs. Nacional in Uruguay (a fixture I’ve attended, incidentally, and which was in its own way pretty brilliant as well).

When I lived in Argentina, Boca-River, Racing-Independiente, Rosario Central-Newells, etc. were filled with players who were stars of their day (Francescoli, Batistuta, Paz, Sensini, Bochini, etc). Today? The equivalents of these players are abroad. So, while the passion is still there with Boca v. River–actually, my opinion is that the passion is really felt in the Bombonera; Monumental’s just really big, ala US stadia in the 1980s where the “passion” is high up in the popular sections–the “importance” of the game has lessened in recent years.

To be honest, I’m a long-suffering Racing fan and have always been skeptical of the masses determination that Boca (la mitad mas uno) and River (los millonarios… las gallinas) are somehow more important clubs than, well, than Europe’s “important” and monied clubs. I just don’t see it. In my view there’s just more money, bigger players, just as passionate fans, and more at stake in Europe’s derbies. Hell, want passion? Go to Turkey or Greece or the Old Firm or Bilbao or Croatia or you get the idea.

Sam: I love your site and haven’t seen any type of “Gallina-Bias.” Not that you’d care, but I’ve been to and around more River games and fans than can be said for Boca. I’d pull for River in the clasico…especially when I see so many pendejos around Portland, Oregon with Boca shirts. Boca. Boca? Makes my skin crawl.