And the fans! That goes double for a certain subset of fans who think that the soccer business is simply business like any other, who are blind to the cultural/social/political parts THAT THEY TAKE PART IN (!), and who believe that success in one area of business can be comfortably and seamlessly transposed into another, and that all the same, relatively rational economic rules, standards, and expectations apply across the board.

Digression: Maybe it’s because I’ve spent too much time on American message boards talking mostly to Americans, but there’s a fair amount of this from American soccer fans on the net, and I’ll wager it has little or nothing to do with us being more capitalist, genetically speaking - it has everything to do with the fact that if you’ve an American soccer fan over the past 15 years or so, you’ve learned to be hyper-conscious about business concerns. Every long-time MLS fan has got one eye on the ledger book at all times - its a trained reflex. There’s a bizarre empathy for the plight of the very rich people who run things, and an assumption of their rationale. Even when its shoddy.

Anyway, digression over.
Having walked into and/or provoked way too many of these tete-a-tetes over the past couple years, I’ve gotten to the point that when someone throws out a trite, thoughtless “it’s the way of the world, get used to it” or “purity in sports is dead,” (who said it ever lived?) or when they start talking about it all as “product”, it’s time for me to throw up my hands and walk away. There’s just no common ground to begin from there.

I wouldn’t wish a Leeds-style collapse on Liverpool fans (or anyone), but it would be a hell of a lesson in economics for football fans. Shock therapy is ugly and I hope we can avoid it; yet if fans close their eyes and fail to see danger when it arrives, as I’m afraid many at Anfield did, they would have to look at themselves closely in the mirror.

In business school they teach that whether or not an LBO will work is purely a function of numbers. If you borrow $X debt ax “i” interest rate and finance over “n” period of time with $R revenues, you just run the numbers to see whether or not it will work. Then you get out into the real world and realize that often the numbers are smoke and mirrors, guesses and BS.

Some endeavors are quantifiable, others aren’t. Football isn’t like selling widgets or calculating how many hotel rooms will be taken in the month of December. There’s no real way to quantify things like team chemistry and form. Even spending all the money in the world on players won’t guarantee success. (Ask Real Madrid.)

And when a good team has a run of poor form, it can affect financial results in a huge way. What will it cost Liverpool if they miss Champions League next year? What if they miss it two years in a row? Who will buy the global brand then? How will the owners bring in the revenue streams to finance the debt if this happens?

I’m curious what interest rate they’re paying on this debt. Anybody know? Borrowing money for a football team, where the ability to repay it depends on teams results, would seem to be incredibly high risk. In general, high risk leads to lenders demanding high interest rates.

I would think that after a couple of huge, high-profile implosions where the team and owners can’t pay what they owe, this will become a moot point. Like the junk bond craze of the late eighties, eventually the numbers just won’t work and you won’t see the deals anymore.

Is it horrible to hope that Liverpool finishes in fifth place or lower this year? (I’ve never liked ‘em anyway.)